When Will AI Pay for Itself?

• "Isn't AI using all our electricity?"

  Data centres took 23% of Ireland's metered electricity in 2025, up from 5% in 2015, more than every urban household combined. Globally it's 1.5%, heading for 3%. Small share, fastest-growing large load, severe where it clusters.

  (CSO 2026; IEA 2025-26)

  One source: A single primary document, usually an official statistic or a peer-reviewed paper.Projection: A scenario, not a measurement.

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• "But isn't it getting more efficient?"

  Yes, and that's the problem. Google cut energy per prompt 33-fold in a year and its electricity use still rose 37%. Efficiency makes AI cheaper; cheaper means more.

  (Google 2025-26)

  Two sources: Two independent organisations agree.Vendor: The company's own figure, unaudited.

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• "Isn't this only about electricity and carbon?"

  No: the ILO counts one job in four worldwide as exposed to generative AI, and women's jobs are about twice as likely as men's to sit in the most exposed group - 4.7% against 2.4%, exposure, not jobs lost.

  (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025)

  One source: A single primary document, usually an official statistic or a peer-reviewed paper.

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• "Where's the actual benefit?"

  In a randomised trial of 105,934 Swedish women, AI-supported screening found 29% more breast cancers with no rise in false alarms and 44% less radiologist reading. Not a pilot, not a promise.

  (Lancet Digital Health 2025)

  Two sources: Two independent organisations agree.

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• "Does it net out?"

  The IEA's own sums: widely used, today's AI applications could cut 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2035, three to four times all data-centre emissions. The IEA also says there's "no momentum" to make it happen. So: starting to, not yet.

  (IEA 2025)

  One source: A single primary document, usually an official statistic or a peer-reviewed paper.Projection: A scenario, not a measurement.

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When Will AI Pay for Itself? · v1.1 · checked 23 September 2026